Census figures show continuing loss of residents; prolonged economic slump blamed.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News
Michigan was one of only two states that lost population last year as fleeing job-seekers accelerated the state's population decline, Census estimates released today show.
Only tiny Rhode Island also lost population in the year prior to July 1, as Michigan's population plummeted by 30,500 last year, more than five times the loss in the prior year and echoing the devastating slump that hit the state in the early 1980s.
"It's pure economy," said Kurt Metzger, director of research for the United Way for Southeastern Michigan. "It just reinforces that one-state recession."
With automakers and their suppliers either buying out or laying off tens of thousands of workers at a time, many expected the state's decline to worsen -- and it did. But some say that the state's slumping housing market may actually be softening the blow as many who want to leave are forced to stay in homes they cannot sell.
The nation's population grew by nearly 1 percent, adding an estimated 2.9 million people, for an estimated total of 301.6 million people. Texas had the biggest increase, adding nearly 500,000 people, while Nevada and Arizona had the biggest percentage increases. Other Midwest states had nonexistent to anemic growth.
A trained auto designer, Brian Shunk, 38, his wife, Shannon, 36, and their son Nicholas, now 3, left Clinton Township for Florida in 2006 to restart their lives after a couple of years on unemployment and taking odd jobs in retail. Worried about their prospects, both Brian and Shannon went back to school to broaden their job options.
They sold their home at a steep loss, incurring thousands of dollars of credit card debt to cover closing costs. Still, they feel lucky they were able to "afford" their departure.
"There are so many things that could have kept us from leaving," he said. "It makes you wonder how many people are anchored and would leave Michigan if they could get out."
The population estimates, released annually, are based on birth and death rates and international and domestic migration measured using tax forms. For years, the steady loss of Michigan residents to other states was more than offset by new migrants from abroad and from the substantial gap between births and deaths. But while those factors have remained steady, the increase in domestic out-migration has risen substantially over the last three years, climbing from nearly 40,000 in 2004 to more than 94,000 this past year.
"There are some positive signs in the state but they are overwhelmed by the negative news," said Don Grimes, a senior economic researcher at the University of Michigan. He just completed a "bleak" economic forecast for the Michigan Department of Transportation but said the Census numbers are actually worse. "It's not a good time," he said.
Prompted by the troubled economy, Gov. Jennifer Granholm has sought international investment and has worked with the legislature to enact a new business tax that will offer incentives for research and job creation, said gubernatorial spokeswoman Liz Boyd.
"The data underscores that the governor is focused on growing the economy and creating jobs," Boyd said.
The last time Michigan suffered such losses was from 1981 through 1983 and the culprit then, as now, was a shrinking auto industry. The difference going forward may be that few believe the auto industry will rebound like it did before. Grimes and others see auto and manufacturing jobs in general declining for years.
For several years, state and local leaders have talked about pinning the state's recovery on education, on its "life-science" corridor and in encouraging more people to seek higher education degrees. But the population losses may undercut those efforts: Many of those who are leaving are educated, and many are young.
Sarah Klein worked for the Metro Times, an alternative weekly publication, before choosing a startup publication in San Jose, Calif. "I've lost count of the number of friends I have who've moved out of Detroit or Michigan in general," Klein, 31, wrote in response to e-mailed questions. "When I left, a friend commented 'another one joins the mass exodus.' "
Young people like Klein have always left Michigan. But she may be joined by an increasing number of peers. "The most mobile people in the country tend to be the most educated," Grimes said.
That trend should put the focus back on improving the education of adults, said Jim Jacobs, director of the Center for Workforce Development and Policy at Macomb Community College.
Charles Rowland had a long career as a designer for local auto engineering firms before work dried up a few years ago. He shuttled back and forth between Florida, Ohio and Michigan before finally staying in Florida late last year. He got contract work at the same employer as Brian Shunk and rented from a local motel until someone got stabbed outside his room.
Rowland, 46, now lives in Cape Canaveral, off the Atlantic coast, and commutes to Orlando each day. His flight from Michigan included a bankruptcy when he couldn't sell his home and he knows several people who, like him, have been forced to go on the road.
"It's the same story: running from a lack of work."
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News
Michigan was one of only two states that lost population last year as fleeing job-seekers accelerated the state's population decline, Census estimates released today show.
Only tiny Rhode Island also lost population in the year prior to July 1, as Michigan's population plummeted by 30,500 last year, more than five times the loss in the prior year and echoing the devastating slump that hit the state in the early 1980s.
"It's pure economy," said Kurt Metzger, director of research for the United Way for Southeastern Michigan. "It just reinforces that one-state recession."
With automakers and their suppliers either buying out or laying off tens of thousands of workers at a time, many expected the state's decline to worsen -- and it did. But some say that the state's slumping housing market may actually be softening the blow as many who want to leave are forced to stay in homes they cannot sell.
The nation's population grew by nearly 1 percent, adding an estimated 2.9 million people, for an estimated total of 301.6 million people. Texas had the biggest increase, adding nearly 500,000 people, while Nevada and Arizona had the biggest percentage increases. Other Midwest states had nonexistent to anemic growth.
A trained auto designer, Brian Shunk, 38, his wife, Shannon, 36, and their son Nicholas, now 3, left Clinton Township for Florida in 2006 to restart their lives after a couple of years on unemployment and taking odd jobs in retail. Worried about their prospects, both Brian and Shannon went back to school to broaden their job options.
They sold their home at a steep loss, incurring thousands of dollars of credit card debt to cover closing costs. Still, they feel lucky they were able to "afford" their departure.
"There are so many things that could have kept us from leaving," he said. "It makes you wonder how many people are anchored and would leave Michigan if they could get out."
The population estimates, released annually, are based on birth and death rates and international and domestic migration measured using tax forms. For years, the steady loss of Michigan residents to other states was more than offset by new migrants from abroad and from the substantial gap between births and deaths. But while those factors have remained steady, the increase in domestic out-migration has risen substantially over the last three years, climbing from nearly 40,000 in 2004 to more than 94,000 this past year.
"There are some positive signs in the state but they are overwhelmed by the negative news," said Don Grimes, a senior economic researcher at the University of Michigan. He just completed a "bleak" economic forecast for the Michigan Department of Transportation but said the Census numbers are actually worse. "It's not a good time," he said.
Prompted by the troubled economy, Gov. Jennifer Granholm has sought international investment and has worked with the legislature to enact a new business tax that will offer incentives for research and job creation, said gubernatorial spokeswoman Liz Boyd.
"The data underscores that the governor is focused on growing the economy and creating jobs," Boyd said.
The last time Michigan suffered such losses was from 1981 through 1983 and the culprit then, as now, was a shrinking auto industry. The difference going forward may be that few believe the auto industry will rebound like it did before. Grimes and others see auto and manufacturing jobs in general declining for years.
For several years, state and local leaders have talked about pinning the state's recovery on education, on its "life-science" corridor and in encouraging more people to seek higher education degrees. But the population losses may undercut those efforts: Many of those who are leaving are educated, and many are young.
Sarah Klein worked for the Metro Times, an alternative weekly publication, before choosing a startup publication in San Jose, Calif. "I've lost count of the number of friends I have who've moved out of Detroit or Michigan in general," Klein, 31, wrote in response to e-mailed questions. "When I left, a friend commented 'another one joins the mass exodus.' "
Young people like Klein have always left Michigan. But she may be joined by an increasing number of peers. "The most mobile people in the country tend to be the most educated," Grimes said.
That trend should put the focus back on improving the education of adults, said Jim Jacobs, director of the Center for Workforce Development and Policy at Macomb Community College.
Charles Rowland had a long career as a designer for local auto engineering firms before work dried up a few years ago. He shuttled back and forth between Florida, Ohio and Michigan before finally staying in Florida late last year. He got contract work at the same employer as Brian Shunk and rented from a local motel until someone got stabbed outside his room.
Rowland, 46, now lives in Cape Canaveral, off the Atlantic coast, and commutes to Orlando each day. His flight from Michigan included a bankruptcy when he couldn't sell his home and he knows several people who, like him, have been forced to go on the road.
"It's the same story: running from a lack of work."
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