Home Foreclosures Hit Fresh High
Troubles Could Deepen
As Effects of Higher Rates
And Tighter Credit Kick In
By DAMIAN PALETTA AND JAMES R. HAGERTY
June 15, 2007
WASHINGTON -- A record number of homeowners entered the foreclosure process during the first quarter, topping the previous high set in the final quarter of 2006 and reflecting continued stress on the jittery housing market, according to a report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The trade group's chief economist, Doug Duncan, predicted that delinquencies would likely rise, peaking later in the year. He also said rising foreclosures probably wouldn't peak until next year. "Our view is that we will probably see modest increases in delinquencies and foreclosures for the next couple of quarters," Mr. Duncan said.
Seasonally adjusted, 0.58% of loans entered the foreclosure process last quarter, compared with 0.54% in the fourth quarter of 2006 and 0.41% in last year's first quarter. The rates for the past two quarters are the highest in the survey's 37-year history. The MBA reported that the spike in foreclosures was much steeper in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada than in other areas. Mr. Duncan said some speculators are walking away from properties in the face of falling prices and higher borrowing costs.
The percentage of loans now in the foreclosure process rose to 1.28%, up from 0.98% a year earlier. That's still well below the 1.51% recorded in the first quarter of 2002, in the wake of a brief recession.
Foreclosures were at an unusually low level at the height of the housing boom a few years ago because people who fell behind on payments generally could sell their houses for more than they owed, or could refinance into loans with easier terms. That has become far more difficult.
In a research note, economists at Goldman Sachs noted that the first-quarter data reported yesterday don't fully reflect the effects of tighter credit, which started taking hold late in the quarter. The figures also don't reflect the recent surge in interest rates, which will push up costs for borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages. "So future reports are likely to show further deterioration, perhaps at a faster rate," the Goldman report said.
One factor likely to restrain rises in the foreclosure rate, at least in the near term, is the willingness of many loan servicers -- the firms responsible for collecting payments -- to lower interest rates or stretch out payment schedules for some borrowers who fall behind. An April report from Credit Suisse mortgage analysts in New York forecast "an impending flood of loan modifications." But these payment-lowering plans sometimes merely delay foreclosure rather than prevent it.
The MBA reported that troubles in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona weighed down the broader housing and foreclosure numbers. Job losses in the Midwest have pushed up foreclosures there, and the housing market has quickly deteriorated in the other four states.
For example, in Ohio, nearly 20% of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages were either 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure -- almost double the national average and five times the rate in Utah.
The delinquency rate on prime loans rose in the first quarter to 2.58% from 2.25% a year earlier. For subprime loans, the rate increased to 13.77% from 11.5%. Delinquency rates on prime adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 3.69% from 2.3% a year earlier. On subprime ARMs, the rate climbed to 15.75% from 12.02%.
Troubles Could Deepen
As Effects of Higher Rates
And Tighter Credit Kick In
By DAMIAN PALETTA AND JAMES R. HAGERTY
June 15, 2007
WASHINGTON -- A record number of homeowners entered the foreclosure process during the first quarter, topping the previous high set in the final quarter of 2006 and reflecting continued stress on the jittery housing market, according to a report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The trade group's chief economist, Doug Duncan, predicted that delinquencies would likely rise, peaking later in the year. He also said rising foreclosures probably wouldn't peak until next year. "Our view is that we will probably see modest increases in delinquencies and foreclosures for the next couple of quarters," Mr. Duncan said.
Seasonally adjusted, 0.58% of loans entered the foreclosure process last quarter, compared with 0.54% in the fourth quarter of 2006 and 0.41% in last year's first quarter. The rates for the past two quarters are the highest in the survey's 37-year history. The MBA reported that the spike in foreclosures was much steeper in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada than in other areas. Mr. Duncan said some speculators are walking away from properties in the face of falling prices and higher borrowing costs.
The percentage of loans now in the foreclosure process rose to 1.28%, up from 0.98% a year earlier. That's still well below the 1.51% recorded in the first quarter of 2002, in the wake of a brief recession.
Foreclosures were at an unusually low level at the height of the housing boom a few years ago because people who fell behind on payments generally could sell their houses for more than they owed, or could refinance into loans with easier terms. That has become far more difficult.
In a research note, economists at Goldman Sachs noted that the first-quarter data reported yesterday don't fully reflect the effects of tighter credit, which started taking hold late in the quarter. The figures also don't reflect the recent surge in interest rates, which will push up costs for borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages. "So future reports are likely to show further deterioration, perhaps at a faster rate," the Goldman report said.
One factor likely to restrain rises in the foreclosure rate, at least in the near term, is the willingness of many loan servicers -- the firms responsible for collecting payments -- to lower interest rates or stretch out payment schedules for some borrowers who fall behind. An April report from Credit Suisse mortgage analysts in New York forecast "an impending flood of loan modifications." But these payment-lowering plans sometimes merely delay foreclosure rather than prevent it.
The MBA reported that troubles in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona weighed down the broader housing and foreclosure numbers. Job losses in the Midwest have pushed up foreclosures there, and the housing market has quickly deteriorated in the other four states.
For example, in Ohio, nearly 20% of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages were either 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure -- almost double the national average and five times the rate in Utah.
The delinquency rate on prime loans rose in the first quarter to 2.58% from 2.25% a year earlier. For subprime loans, the rate increased to 13.77% from 11.5%. Delinquency rates on prime adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 3.69% from 2.3% a year earlier. On subprime ARMs, the rate climbed to 15.75% from 12.02%.
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