Wayne population skids
Only 4 Gulf Coast counties hit by Katrina lost more people between 2005 and 2006.
Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News
If not for Hurricane Katrina, Wayne County would be No. 1 in the nation.
But hold the cheering.
Wayne County lost more people than any other county between 2005 and 2006 except for four Gulf Coast counties pummeled by the hurricane, according to census data released today.
Metro Detroit's losses were inflicted by an economic storm that is ravaging the region: unemployment higher than most of the nation triggered by massive layoffs, buyouts and job relocations.
Wayne lost more than 19,000 people, and combined with modest increases in Oakland, Macomb and Livingston counties, the metro area overall lost more than 11,000 people. That outweighed the rest of the state's modest gains and made 2006 the first year in more than two decades that Michigan lost population.
"This is not a cyclical event. It's more a structural event, but one we've never seen before," said Michael LaFaive, director of fiscal policy for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a conservative Midland-based research group.
The report is the latest glimpse of the impact of the state's declining economic climate, but it may well not reflect the worst of it. The estimates, based on income tax returns, births, deaths and Medicare applications, are for July 1, 2006 -- before the most recent rounds of auto-industry buyouts were announced, and before Pfizer announced the closure of its Ann Arbor facility.
"I keep thinking, 'what are the 2007 estimates going to be?' " said Kurt Metzger, director of research for the United Way for Southeast Michigan. "They're going to be much worse."
Slide may continue
Driving the downward trend, in addition to the ailing economy, is lower birth rates and fewer immigrants willing to take a chance on Michigan, Metzger and others said.
Even growing counties like Livingston, Macomb and Oakland are seeing their population increases slow, and most economists and demographers expect the trend to continue.
"We're going to see several more years of this kind of out-migration leading to population loss," said Jim Rogers, manager of the data center for the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, a planning organization that next week is expected to update the long-term job and population forecasts for the region.
The news isn't a shock to most. Developers are delaying projects and politicians are trying to stretch tax dollars. And for some cities, including Detroit and Monroe, fewer people mean they need fewer schools.
If you live in the region, the signs of changes are everywhere.
"There are 'for-sale' signs sprouting up like mushrooms," said Todd Baginski, a Ford employee and Plymouth Township resident who survived the recent wave of buyouts.
Back in December, as word of Ford buyouts spread, Baginski said he considered looking for work in the state of Wyoming. But since the buyouts reduced his department by a third, he said he's bullish again on his job situation and the state.
"My confidence level has increased," Baginski said. "I'm not going to uproot unless something disastrous happens."
Some say that could still happen. While the rest of the country is enjoying moderate economic growth, Michigan is wallowing in layoffs and self-doubt. During previous recessions, the entire country felt Michigan's pain and the state's workers had fewer migration options. But now, other states are looking for workers here and throughout the Midwest.
"The question is: What is it going to take to turn it around?" Metzger asked.
He said the region and state need a new direction, discarding the mindset that the factory jobs will return. "There's no doubt about it. This place is going to have to change," he said.
Trend seen across Mich., U.S.
In Warren, Wendy Markus has worked as a waitress, cook and now manager at Teddy's Tavern, across from General Motors Corp.'s sprawling tech center. As the economy has triggered layoffs and reduced overtime, the tavern has had fewer customers. "A lot of people are spending their money on their children rather than here," she said.
"In the last five years it's really gone down," she said.
The losses aren't limited to southeast Michigan -- or the state. Nearly half of the state's 83 counties lost some population, and big counties throughout the Midwest lost population. Cuyahoga County in Ohio, home to Cleveland, lost more than 16,000 people.
Many counties in the plains and mountain region -- the Dakotas, Montana, Kansas and elsewhere -- had greater percentage drops.
Meanwhile, many counties throughout the South and Southwest continued to grow. Maricopa County, Ariz., home to Phoenix, added the most people from 2005 to 2006. The county added nearly 130,000, to about 3.8 million. It was followed by Harris County, Texas; Riverside County, Calif.; Clark County, Nev.; and Tarrant County, Texas. Chattahoochee County, Ga., had the highest percentage growth from 2005 to 2006, at 13.2 percent, to just more than 14,000 people.
In Michigan, policymakers and real estate agents will worry if the state's greatest export will be its people. For now, most say the moving vans will continue to head south.
"There's no signs (of a reversal) given the continued job loss and our economic restructuring overall," Rogers said.
Only 4 Gulf Coast counties hit by Katrina lost more people between 2005 and 2006.
Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News
If not for Hurricane Katrina, Wayne County would be No. 1 in the nation.
But hold the cheering.
Wayne County lost more people than any other county between 2005 and 2006 except for four Gulf Coast counties pummeled by the hurricane, according to census data released today.
Metro Detroit's losses were inflicted by an economic storm that is ravaging the region: unemployment higher than most of the nation triggered by massive layoffs, buyouts and job relocations.
Wayne lost more than 19,000 people, and combined with modest increases in Oakland, Macomb and Livingston counties, the metro area overall lost more than 11,000 people. That outweighed the rest of the state's modest gains and made 2006 the first year in more than two decades that Michigan lost population.
"This is not a cyclical event. It's more a structural event, but one we've never seen before," said Michael LaFaive, director of fiscal policy for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a conservative Midland-based research group.
The report is the latest glimpse of the impact of the state's declining economic climate, but it may well not reflect the worst of it. The estimates, based on income tax returns, births, deaths and Medicare applications, are for July 1, 2006 -- before the most recent rounds of auto-industry buyouts were announced, and before Pfizer announced the closure of its Ann Arbor facility.
"I keep thinking, 'what are the 2007 estimates going to be?' " said Kurt Metzger, director of research for the United Way for Southeast Michigan. "They're going to be much worse."
Slide may continue
Driving the downward trend, in addition to the ailing economy, is lower birth rates and fewer immigrants willing to take a chance on Michigan, Metzger and others said.
Even growing counties like Livingston, Macomb and Oakland are seeing their population increases slow, and most economists and demographers expect the trend to continue.
"We're going to see several more years of this kind of out-migration leading to population loss," said Jim Rogers, manager of the data center for the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, a planning organization that next week is expected to update the long-term job and population forecasts for the region.
The news isn't a shock to most. Developers are delaying projects and politicians are trying to stretch tax dollars. And for some cities, including Detroit and Monroe, fewer people mean they need fewer schools.
If you live in the region, the signs of changes are everywhere.
"There are 'for-sale' signs sprouting up like mushrooms," said Todd Baginski, a Ford employee and Plymouth Township resident who survived the recent wave of buyouts.
Back in December, as word of Ford buyouts spread, Baginski said he considered looking for work in the state of Wyoming. But since the buyouts reduced his department by a third, he said he's bullish again on his job situation and the state.
"My confidence level has increased," Baginski said. "I'm not going to uproot unless something disastrous happens."
Some say that could still happen. While the rest of the country is enjoying moderate economic growth, Michigan is wallowing in layoffs and self-doubt. During previous recessions, the entire country felt Michigan's pain and the state's workers had fewer migration options. But now, other states are looking for workers here and throughout the Midwest.
"The question is: What is it going to take to turn it around?" Metzger asked.
He said the region and state need a new direction, discarding the mindset that the factory jobs will return. "There's no doubt about it. This place is going to have to change," he said.
Trend seen across Mich., U.S.
In Warren, Wendy Markus has worked as a waitress, cook and now manager at Teddy's Tavern, across from General Motors Corp.'s sprawling tech center. As the economy has triggered layoffs and reduced overtime, the tavern has had fewer customers. "A lot of people are spending their money on their children rather than here," she said.
"In the last five years it's really gone down," she said.
The losses aren't limited to southeast Michigan -- or the state. Nearly half of the state's 83 counties lost some population, and big counties throughout the Midwest lost population. Cuyahoga County in Ohio, home to Cleveland, lost more than 16,000 people.
Many counties in the plains and mountain region -- the Dakotas, Montana, Kansas and elsewhere -- had greater percentage drops.
Meanwhile, many counties throughout the South and Southwest continued to grow. Maricopa County, Ariz., home to Phoenix, added the most people from 2005 to 2006. The county added nearly 130,000, to about 3.8 million. It was followed by Harris County, Texas; Riverside County, Calif.; Clark County, Nev.; and Tarrant County, Texas. Chattahoochee County, Ga., had the highest percentage growth from 2005 to 2006, at 13.2 percent, to just more than 14,000 people.
In Michigan, policymakers and real estate agents will worry if the state's greatest export will be its people. For now, most say the moving vans will continue to head south.
"There's no signs (of a reversal) given the continued job loss and our economic restructuring overall," Rogers said.
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