Housing Starts Sink 14.3%
To Lowest Point in 10 Years
PPI Indicates Underlying Inflation Is in Check
By JEFF BATER and BRIAN BLACKSTONE
February 16, 2007
Home construction fell to its lowest point in nearly 10 years during January in an unexpectedly large decrease that erased hopeful gains posted in two prior months.
A separate report showed wholesale prices fell last month, after two strong months of gains, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures remain broadly contained and are in line with the Federal Reserve's expectations. Core prices, however, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose slightly, suggesting there is potential for inflation. A third report showed a drop in consumer sentiment in a mid-February reading.
Housing starts plunged by 14.3% to a seasonally adjusted 1.408 million annual rate, the Commerce Department said Friday. Building permits also resumed falling. The government raised its original estimate for December starts. Construction rose by 5.0% to 1.643 million, revised from an originally reported 4.5% climb to 1.642 million.
Wall Street expected a much smaller decline in starts during January. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 2.6% decline to a 1.600 million annual rate. The last time construction was lower was August 1997, when starts were at 1.390 million.
Housing has taken a toll on the economy, reducing the growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year by 1.16 percentage points to 3.5%. Sales of new homes tumbled in 2006, forcing builders faced with rising inventories to offer incentives in order to move property.
Some recent data, however, had indicated the slump might have hit a bottom. The latest government report on new-home sales, for example, showed a 4.8% increase in demand during December. Year over year, demand was 11.0% lower.
The National Association of Home Builders reported Thursday its index measuring views held by builders about sales prospects of new, single-family homes rose in February to 40 from 35. However, that reading suggested builders, while feeling significantly more confident than a month ago, remained generally pessimistic about the market. The index was based on a survey of 350 home builders, who answer questions about sales prospects now and in the near term. When the Housing Market Index exceeds 50, it means the number of builders who see "good" sales outnumber the number who see "poor" sales.
Friday's report said January building permits fell by 2.8% to an annual rate of 1.568 million. Economists expected permits would fall by 1.4% to 1.590 million. Permits increased a revised 6.6% in December to 1.613 million, compared with an earlier estimated 5.5% climb to 1.596 million.
Regionally, housing starts last month decreased by 28.5% to 301,000 units in the West, 15.2% to 195,000 units in the Midwest, and 11.8% to 716,000 units in the South. Starts rose 8.9% to 196,000 units in the Northeast.
Breaking down the rate of 1.408 million overall U.S. starts in January, single-family housing fell 11.2% to 1.108 million units. Construction of housing with two or more units decreased 24.1% to 300,000; within that category, groundbreakings of homes with five or more units -- or multi-family -- fell 20.5% to 276,000 units.
An estimated 95,400 houses were actually started in January based on figures unadjusted for seasonal factors. An estimated 112,100 building permits were issued last month, also based on unadjusted figures.
To Lowest Point in 10 Years
PPI Indicates Underlying Inflation Is in Check
By JEFF BATER and BRIAN BLACKSTONE
February 16, 2007
Home construction fell to its lowest point in nearly 10 years during January in an unexpectedly large decrease that erased hopeful gains posted in two prior months.
A separate report showed wholesale prices fell last month, after two strong months of gains, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures remain broadly contained and are in line with the Federal Reserve's expectations. Core prices, however, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose slightly, suggesting there is potential for inflation. A third report showed a drop in consumer sentiment in a mid-February reading.
Housing starts plunged by 14.3% to a seasonally adjusted 1.408 million annual rate, the Commerce Department said Friday. Building permits also resumed falling. The government raised its original estimate for December starts. Construction rose by 5.0% to 1.643 million, revised from an originally reported 4.5% climb to 1.642 million.
Wall Street expected a much smaller decline in starts during January. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 2.6% decline to a 1.600 million annual rate. The last time construction was lower was August 1997, when starts were at 1.390 million.
Housing has taken a toll on the economy, reducing the growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year by 1.16 percentage points to 3.5%. Sales of new homes tumbled in 2006, forcing builders faced with rising inventories to offer incentives in order to move property.
Some recent data, however, had indicated the slump might have hit a bottom. The latest government report on new-home sales, for example, showed a 4.8% increase in demand during December. Year over year, demand was 11.0% lower.
The National Association of Home Builders reported Thursday its index measuring views held by builders about sales prospects of new, single-family homes rose in February to 40 from 35. However, that reading suggested builders, while feeling significantly more confident than a month ago, remained generally pessimistic about the market. The index was based on a survey of 350 home builders, who answer questions about sales prospects now and in the near term. When the Housing Market Index exceeds 50, it means the number of builders who see "good" sales outnumber the number who see "poor" sales.
Friday's report said January building permits fell by 2.8% to an annual rate of 1.568 million. Economists expected permits would fall by 1.4% to 1.590 million. Permits increased a revised 6.6% in December to 1.613 million, compared with an earlier estimated 5.5% climb to 1.596 million.
Regionally, housing starts last month decreased by 28.5% to 301,000 units in the West, 15.2% to 195,000 units in the Midwest, and 11.8% to 716,000 units in the South. Starts rose 8.9% to 196,000 units in the Northeast.
Breaking down the rate of 1.408 million overall U.S. starts in January, single-family housing fell 11.2% to 1.108 million units. Construction of housing with two or more units decreased 24.1% to 300,000; within that category, groundbreakings of homes with five or more units -- or multi-family -- fell 20.5% to 276,000 units.
An estimated 95,400 houses were actually started in January based on figures unadjusted for seasonal factors. An estimated 112,100 building permits were issued last month, also based on unadjusted figures.
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