For first time, Detroit's black population falls
Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit News Washington Bureau
After five decades of watching their white neighbors leave the city of Detroit by the thousands, Detroit's African-Americans have begun to follow.
Detroit's black population fell 10 percent from 2000 to 2005, according to population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The decline reverses Detroit's 50-year trend of attracting African-Americans even as the city's overall population fell. And it demonstrates how many of the same factors that attracted whites by the tens of thousands to the suburbs -- good schools and city services -- have begun to draw blacks in increasing numbers.
The shift has broad implications for the city and its suburbs. Detroit's ability to rebound economically may be damaged if blacks abandon the city. And suburban communities that just 10 or 15 years ago had almost no black residents may struggle to adjust to the new diversity.
The change from Detroit's 20th century history is striking. Even as Detroit's population plunged from 1.8 million in 1950 to just over 1 million in 1990, the city's black population grew. But after remaining essentially flat during the 1990s, the black community plunged in the first half of this decade by an estimated 75,000 people. Between 2000 and 2005, Detroit lost enough African-Americans to populate the entire city of Southfield.
The trend is especially striking in places such as Livonia, Warren and Dearborn, which historically have lacked large numbers of blacks -- but often have been the scene of racial tensions.
Miriam Parchman, 37, spent most of her life in Detroit before moving to Warren in March with her four children.
"I was just at the point that I was tired (of the city)," said Parchman, who is black. She said she left a neighborhood plagued by drug dealers and a school system where her children sat in rundown classrooms reading trashed textbooks.
Parchman is hardly alone: Warren's black population grew by 169 percent from 2000 to 2005, to nearly 10,000.
"I know there are a lot of positive things going on (in Detroit), but I am not ready to go back. I really want more for my babies right now," she said.
Blacks larger part of 'burbs
While about 22 percent of Metro Detroit's African-Americans lived in the suburbs in 2000, that grew to an estimated 32 percent by 2005, according to the estimates -- a massive shift, said University of Michigan researcher Reynolds Farley, who has studied Metro Detroit's racial landscape for decades. The numbers suggest Detroit may be at the start of a black exodus rivaling that of whites after World War II, he said.
The figures released today are for the American Community Survey, the Census Bureau's attempt to provide detailed demographic data between once-a-decade censuses. Today's data includes figures for all areas of more than 65,000, including 21 Michigan cities.
The numbers are based on a survey of randomly selected residents and are subject to the same statistical uncertainties as other random samples, such as public opinion polls.
But even with those uncertainties, the trend of black migration to the suburbs is clear, said Kurt Metzger, a demographics expert formerly at Wayne State University and now with United Way of Southeast Michigan.
"This is really going to take a toll on the neighborhoods -- the Palmer Parks and Sherwood Forests," said Metzger. While income estimates will not be available until later, Metzger said it's likely the exodus has been led by middle-class families with children.
"They're looking for any chance to get into another kind of school system," he said.
Will people come back?
Experts worry the black exodus, if it continues, could knock out one of the few remaining strengths of the city's economy: A core of middle-class blacks committed to remaining there.
Andrew Wiese, a San Diego State University researcher who studies city-to-suburb migration, said the experience of other cities suggests that people will return eventually. In Cleveland, St. Louis, Washington and other cities, new city dwellers -- often young whites, singles or couples without children -- have sparked neighborhood revivals.
"Detroit isn't going away," he said. "Detroit's location cannot be reproduced in, say, Birmingham. It still sits on that river, Belle Isle still sits in the middle, it still has those broad river views. Those are things people are paying for elsewhere."
Matt Allen, a spokesman for Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, said the city needs a strong African-American middle class, and the city is pursuing programs to retain it, including efforts to better services and tax incentives to retain residents.
Metzger and Farley said they were struck by the growth of the African-American population in Warren, Dearborn and Sterling Heights.
"Those areas have continued to have a reputation for hostility to blacks," said Farley, who has surveyed blacks and whites on racial attitudes on housing preferences.
In Farmington Hills, Mayor Vicki Barnett said local officials have to keep the region's history in mind.
"When you have the kind of segregation we have in the Detroit metro area, you have to address it," said Barnett, whose city saw its black population increase 72 percent since 2000.
Barnett said city officials have tried to reach out to new minority residents, seeking them out to take seats on government boards and commissions.
"I'm not confident we're exactly where we need to be, but we're moving in that direction," she said.
'It's not safe over there'
Among the biggest issues to watch, Metzger said, is whether suburban whites follow the pattern set decades earlier in Detroit. When blacks began moving into all-white neighborhoods in large numbers, those areas rapidly transitioned from majority white, feeding the pattern of racial segregation that persists to this day.
"The first thing we're likely to see is whites leaving those neighborhoods, unless white preferences on these issues have changed," Metzger said.
Julie Wallen, 46, said her family moved from Detroit to the suburbs when she was a child. She understands why blacks would leave, too.
"It's not safe over there," she said.
Now in Warren, she's glad her children got a chance to go to school with students of different races because it will make them more open and understanding.
Still, Parchman, the black newcomer to Warren, said her family has encountered the city's reputation for being unwelcoming to minorities on one occasion, when a classmate made a comment to one of her children.
She said she tries to explain to them that they could encounter ignorance anywhere.
"You can't run from racism, prejudice," Parchman said. "You have to be willing to stand up."
Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit News Washington Bureau
After five decades of watching their white neighbors leave the city of Detroit by the thousands, Detroit's African-Americans have begun to follow.
Detroit's black population fell 10 percent from 2000 to 2005, according to population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The decline reverses Detroit's 50-year trend of attracting African-Americans even as the city's overall population fell. And it demonstrates how many of the same factors that attracted whites by the tens of thousands to the suburbs -- good schools and city services -- have begun to draw blacks in increasing numbers.
The shift has broad implications for the city and its suburbs. Detroit's ability to rebound economically may be damaged if blacks abandon the city. And suburban communities that just 10 or 15 years ago had almost no black residents may struggle to adjust to the new diversity.
The change from Detroit's 20th century history is striking. Even as Detroit's population plunged from 1.8 million in 1950 to just over 1 million in 1990, the city's black population grew. But after remaining essentially flat during the 1990s, the black community plunged in the first half of this decade by an estimated 75,000 people. Between 2000 and 2005, Detroit lost enough African-Americans to populate the entire city of Southfield.
The trend is especially striking in places such as Livonia, Warren and Dearborn, which historically have lacked large numbers of blacks -- but often have been the scene of racial tensions.
Miriam Parchman, 37, spent most of her life in Detroit before moving to Warren in March with her four children.
"I was just at the point that I was tired (of the city)," said Parchman, who is black. She said she left a neighborhood plagued by drug dealers and a school system where her children sat in rundown classrooms reading trashed textbooks.
Parchman is hardly alone: Warren's black population grew by 169 percent from 2000 to 2005, to nearly 10,000.
"I know there are a lot of positive things going on (in Detroit), but I am not ready to go back. I really want more for my babies right now," she said.
Blacks larger part of 'burbs
While about 22 percent of Metro Detroit's African-Americans lived in the suburbs in 2000, that grew to an estimated 32 percent by 2005, according to the estimates -- a massive shift, said University of Michigan researcher Reynolds Farley, who has studied Metro Detroit's racial landscape for decades. The numbers suggest Detroit may be at the start of a black exodus rivaling that of whites after World War II, he said.
The figures released today are for the American Community Survey, the Census Bureau's attempt to provide detailed demographic data between once-a-decade censuses. Today's data includes figures for all areas of more than 65,000, including 21 Michigan cities.
The numbers are based on a survey of randomly selected residents and are subject to the same statistical uncertainties as other random samples, such as public opinion polls.
But even with those uncertainties, the trend of black migration to the suburbs is clear, said Kurt Metzger, a demographics expert formerly at Wayne State University and now with United Way of Southeast Michigan.
"This is really going to take a toll on the neighborhoods -- the Palmer Parks and Sherwood Forests," said Metzger. While income estimates will not be available until later, Metzger said it's likely the exodus has been led by middle-class families with children.
"They're looking for any chance to get into another kind of school system," he said.
Will people come back?
Experts worry the black exodus, if it continues, could knock out one of the few remaining strengths of the city's economy: A core of middle-class blacks committed to remaining there.
Andrew Wiese, a San Diego State University researcher who studies city-to-suburb migration, said the experience of other cities suggests that people will return eventually. In Cleveland, St. Louis, Washington and other cities, new city dwellers -- often young whites, singles or couples without children -- have sparked neighborhood revivals.
"Detroit isn't going away," he said. "Detroit's location cannot be reproduced in, say, Birmingham. It still sits on that river, Belle Isle still sits in the middle, it still has those broad river views. Those are things people are paying for elsewhere."
Matt Allen, a spokesman for Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, said the city needs a strong African-American middle class, and the city is pursuing programs to retain it, including efforts to better services and tax incentives to retain residents.
Metzger and Farley said they were struck by the growth of the African-American population in Warren, Dearborn and Sterling Heights.
"Those areas have continued to have a reputation for hostility to blacks," said Farley, who has surveyed blacks and whites on racial attitudes on housing preferences.
In Farmington Hills, Mayor Vicki Barnett said local officials have to keep the region's history in mind.
"When you have the kind of segregation we have in the Detroit metro area, you have to address it," said Barnett, whose city saw its black population increase 72 percent since 2000.
Barnett said city officials have tried to reach out to new minority residents, seeking them out to take seats on government boards and commissions.
"I'm not confident we're exactly where we need to be, but we're moving in that direction," she said.
'It's not safe over there'
Among the biggest issues to watch, Metzger said, is whether suburban whites follow the pattern set decades earlier in Detroit. When blacks began moving into all-white neighborhoods in large numbers, those areas rapidly transitioned from majority white, feeding the pattern of racial segregation that persists to this day.
"The first thing we're likely to see is whites leaving those neighborhoods, unless white preferences on these issues have changed," Metzger said.
Julie Wallen, 46, said her family moved from Detroit to the suburbs when she was a child. She understands why blacks would leave, too.
"It's not safe over there," she said.
Now in Warren, she's glad her children got a chance to go to school with students of different races because it will make them more open and understanding.
Still, Parchman, the black newcomer to Warren, said her family has encountered the city's reputation for being unwelcoming to minorities on one occasion, when a classmate made a comment to one of her children.
She said she tries to explain to them that they could encounter ignorance anywhere.
"You can't run from racism, prejudice," Parchman said. "You have to be willing to stand up."
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